The S&P 500 Is Stuck. What History Says Happens Next.
The S&P 500 Is Stuck. What History Says Happens Next.
Keith Speights, The Motley FoolSun, February 22, 2026 at 10:04 AM UTC
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Key Points -
History shows a clear pattern with previous range-bound starts for the S&P 500.
What's happening beneath the surface of the market now is more important than what happened in the past.
2026 is shaping up to be a stock picker's market.
10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index ›
Many investors aren't enjoying 2026 all that much so far. You might have noticed that the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is off to a not-so-spectacular start this year. The mojo from the last three years seems to have evaporated.
To be sure, the vaunted index hasn't crashed. However, it hasn't gained significant momentum, either. Instead, the S&P 500 remains in what technical traders call a range-bound status. It oscillates between similar highs and lows.
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In other words, the S&P 500 is stuck. Here's what history says happens next.
History lessons from range-bound starts
Range-bound starts to a new year haven't been commonplace in the past. However, they're not unheard of.
One of the most recent textbook examples of the S&P 500 trading in a range at the start of the year was in 2006. During the first seven or so weeks of the year, the index couldn't break out of an up-and-down cycle.
^SPX Chart
^SPX data by YCharts
What happened next? The S&P took off later in the year and ended 2006 with a solid gain of nearly 14%.
Such a happy ending hasn't always happened, though. In 2005, the S&P 500 also remained range-bound early in the year. It never entirely broke out of the range, finishing the year up only 3%.
^SPX Chart
^SPX data by YCharts
On the other hand, investors sometimes partied like it was 1999 after a sluggish start. That was the case in (you probably guessed it) 1999. The S&P 500 couldn't get out of its rut during January and February. That eventually changed, with the index soaring almost 20% by year-end.
^SPX Chart
^SPX data by YCharts
I won't bore you by going through all the examples of range-bound starts for the S&P 500 over the last 50 years. However, history does have some good news for investors. In most cases, the index at least ended the year on a positive note after starting trading in a range. Also, double-digit declines were rare.
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What's happening beneath the surface
Perhaps the most instructive thing to know about periods when the S&P 500 seems to be stuck, though, is that not every stock moves in lockstep with the index. We're seeing that happen in 2026.
For example, the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEMKT: XLE), which tracks energy stocks in the S&P 500, has soared more than 20% year to date. Several factors explain why, including geopolitical uncertainty that has driven higher oil prices and surging energy demand to power data centers hosting artificial intelligence (AI) systems.
The State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEMKT: XLB) isn't too far behind the high-flying energy ETF. As its name indicates, the fund focuses on material stocks. The AI boom is one reason this ETF has performed so well. Increased infrastructure spending and high commodity prices (especially for gold and silver) are two other key factors.
Some S&P 500 members are dramatically outgaining their sectors so far this year. Sandisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) is an excellent case in point. The tech sector has been highly volatile, but this maker of flash memory products has seen its shares skyrocket more than 150%.
Opportunities for stock pickers
If history is any guide, the S&P 500 will probably finish 2026 on a positive note. However, the present is arguably more helpful to investors than the past.
This year is shaping up to be one that offers opportunities for stock pickers. Simply buying an S&P 500 ETF probably won't deliver the kinds of gains you could obtain by selecting individual stocks that are poised to outperform. At this point, energy and materials stocks appear to be the best candidates.
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Keith Speights has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Source: “AOL Money”
